Amidst global and regional mixed economic outlooks for growth in 2014 and 2015, Lebanon’s economy is expected to grow by not more than 1.5% in 2014, as shown in the Latest issue of the MENA Economic Report released by the World Bank. This is due to the escalation of the war in neighboring Syria resulting in the income of refugees. Not forgetting the fact of presidential vacuum which might further risk the country’s political, security, and economic positions.
On the fiscal front, fiscal deficit is expected to broaden from 9.4% in 2013, to 10.2% in 2014, with a gross public debt of 149% of GDP.
In the external sector, current account deficit is projected to be 8.3% of GDP in 2014, same as the previous 2 years, where the balance of payments depending mostly on remittances and international aid for refugees.
Looking at the banking sector, the conserved financial sector and the high spread between domestic and international rates of return have prompted abundant inflows of deposits to Lebanese banks, resulting in solid liquidity buffers.
Globally, growth is forecasted to be almost 2.5%, while the MENA is projected to grow by around 3% this year, however with disparity between high-income and developing countries.
Economic Indicator Forecasts
| 2013 | 2014f | 2015f | |
| Real GDP Growth (%) | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 2.7 | 1.5 | 3.4 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -9.4 | -10.2 | -11.2 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -8.5 | -8.3 | -8 |
Source: World Bank