Real GDP Forecasted to Rise by 1.8% in 2014

 In its latest report on the Lebanese economic activity, Business Monitor International (BMI) projects growth to improve moderately over the coming years impeded by political instability and a lack of structural reform. Real GDP is forecasted to rise by 1.8% in 2014 and 2.6% in 2015, triggered primarily by private consumption. Consumer spending is expected to increase gradually over the coming quarters reaching a growth of 2.5% by 2014 and 3.4% in 2015. In fact, this was mirrored by the 7.94% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in new car sales to 32,084 during the first 10 months of 2014. Looking at government expenditure, it is forecasted to grow by 3.2% in 2014 and 3.6% in 2015, caused by the administration’s inability to restrict the rising fiscal deficit. Moreover, foreign donors will support spending on public services to help Lebanon cope with the refugee crisis. Concerning investment, its growth is expected to remain subdued with an expansion of 2.5% in both 2014 and 2015, amid protracted political instability and an obscure business environment. Worth noting that prospects for investment in the energy industry are not promising, due to the slow political process that has been delaying bidding auctions for exploration rights numerous times. Moreover, the liberalization in the telecommunications sector is not expected to take place anytime soon, as the mobile networks provide the treasury with its third largest source of revenue amounting to $1.5B. On the external position, Lebanon’s balance of trade deficit is expected to widen from $9.4B in 2013 to $9.9B and $10.3B in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Tourism sector is also predicted to suffer from political instability, although they increased by 4.2% y-o-y over the first three quarters of 2014. Finally, as structural reforms in the economy seem to be off the cards, and the war in Syria persists, the Lebanese economy will keep its slow pace over the next 5 years with an average growth of 2.9%.

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