According to Business Monitor International’s (BMI) latest industry view, the Lebanese healthcare system is “under enormous strain due to the increasing number of Syrian refugees seeking treatment in the country”. Moreover, BMI notes that the political instability will adversely affect the government’s policy regarding healthcare and will therefore expose the pharmaceutical sector to risk. Pharmaceutical sales are expected to grow marginally from $1.59B in 2014 to $1.60B in 2015. As for healthcare expenditures, they are projected to rise from $3.7B in 2014 to $3.74B in 2015. BMI’s Risk/Reward Score for Lebanon in Q2 2015 stood at 52.0 out of 100 down from 54.7 in the previous quarter. In fact, the industry rewards’ score, measuring the size of the market and the growth potential fell from 21.2 over 44 in Q1 2015 to 20 out of 44 in Q2 2015. As for the industry risks’ score, it stood at 9.5 out of 21 in Q2 2015, above the regional average of 7.7. According to BMI, this means that it is less risky for multinationals to operate in the country. However, the political instability, the lack of data protection and counterfeiting are likely to affect the future risk profile of Lebanon. The country risk score is at 7.9 out of 14 in Q2 2015, barely above the regional average of 7.3, due to the ongoing issues of a poor legal framework and political instability.
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015f | 2016f | 2017f | 2018f | 2019f | |
| Pharmaceutical sales, USD bn | 1.301 | 1.301 | 1.464 | 1.586 | 1.596 | 1.675 | 1.732 | 1.768 | 1.83 |
| Pharmaceutical sales, USD per capita | 290.6 | 279.9 | 303.5 | 319.3 | 315.9 | 330.2 | 343.7 | 355.3 | 372.5 |
| Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP | 3.24 | 3.05 | 3.23 | 3.37 | 3.45 | 3.5 | 3.53 | 3.53 | 3.52 |
| Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure | 44.9 | 41.4 | 42.9 | 42.9 | 42.7 | 42.5 | 42.4 | 42.2 | 42 |