According to the Central Administration of Statistics (CAS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continued to show signs of deflationary pressures, recording a yearly decline for the 5th month consecutively. The CPI dropped from 101.64 points in April 2014 to 97.83 points by the end of April 2015, recording a 3.75% year-on-year (y-o-y) fall. This fall is attributed to the annual 44% and 15% plunges in the average international oil quotes and the deprecating Euro, respectively, in the first four month of the year. The former has been weighing heavily on “water, electricity, gas & other fuels” and “transportation” which constitute two of the main weights of the CPI with a collective share of 25%.
In terms of the CPI’s components, “food and non-alcoholic beverages” (20.6% of CPI) downturned by 0.94% y-o-y in April 2015. Moreover, “transportation” (13.1% of CPI) and “water, electricity, gas & other fuels” (11.9% of CPI), saw annual declines of 12.06% and 15.35%, respectively. “Health” (7.8% of CPI) sub-index posted a yearly downtick of 4.61%, mainly on the back of ceilings on medicine (prices) set by the Ministry of Finance, cutting them by up to 30% since April 2014. The final 2 sub-indices that waned were “communication” (4.6% of CPI) and “recreation, amusement and culture” (2.3% of CPI), posting respective y-o-y falls of 23.77% and 0.12%. Lower internet and mobile tariffs (30% decline to $0.25/minute) initiated in the beginning of June 2014 were behind the former drop.
However, “education” sub-index, constituting 5.9% of the CPI, increased annually by 4.51% in April 2015. In addition, “clothing and footwear” (5.4% of CPI) prices went up by 5.80% y-o-y, which might be due to the 23.12% y-o-y improvement in tourist activity, in the 1st quarter of 2015. In addition, “actual rent” sub-index for households (old and new rent), with a stake of 3.4% in the CPI, upturned by 9.98% y-o-y.
On a month-on-month basis, overall prices have been increasing, for the last 3 months, by an average of 0.73% compared to 1.05% decline in the first 2 months of the year. This is because of the recovery of Brent crude oil and the Euro vs the Dollar since the beginning of March.
Yearly CPI Components Change in April
Source: CAS