The High Probability of a Fed Rate Hike in December Lowers Demand for US Treasuries

Over the past week, the BLOM Bond Index (BBI) rose by 0.49%, to end the week at 103.94 points. The JP Morgan Emerging Markets’ Bond Index (EMBI) registered a close performance, increasing by a weekly 0.47% to 805.42 points. 

The BBI was boosted by higher demand for Lebanese Eurobonds maturing in 5 and 10 years as their respective yields slid from last week’s 6.20% and 7.02% to this week’s 6.05% and 6.92%.

Demand for US treasuries was down this week as Federal Reserve officials pointed to the high likelihood of a rate hike in December and as the US stock market recorded a strong performance.  

The lower demand for safe haven assets was shown by the rise in yields on the US Treasuries maturing in 5 and 10 Years from last week’s 1.89% and 2.31% to this week’s 1.94% and 2.35%.

The 5Y and 10Y spreads between the Lebanese Eurobonds and their US comparable fell from last week’s 431 bps and 471 bps to 411 bps and 457 bps, respectively.

5 Year Credit Default Swaps, Mid-Prices (in basis points)

 05/10/201728/09/2017
Lebanon452450
KSA8286
Dubai144148
Brazil185200
Turkey175188

Weekly Change of Lebanese Eurobonds Prices

 PricesWeeklyYieldsWeekly
Maturity Coupon in %05/10/201728/09/2017Change 05/10/201728/09/2017Change bps
12/11/20185.15100.25100.250.00%4.91%4.91%0
23/04/20195.5100.65100.380.27%5.06%5.24%-19
20/05/20196101.38101.250.13%5.10%5.19%-9
28/11/20195.45100.381000.38%5.26%5.45%-19
09/03/20206.375102.25101.630.61%5.37%5.65%-28
14/04/20205.8100.51000.50%5.58%5.80%-21
19/06/20206.15101.25100.750.50%5.64%5.84%-20
12/04/20218.25107.88107.380.47%5.74%5.91%-16
04/10/20226.1100.1399.50.63%6.07%6.22%-15
27/01/2023698.7598.130.63%6.28%6.42%-14
22/04/20246.65100.2599.630.62%6.60%6.72%-12
04/11/20246.2598.1397.380.77%6.58%6.72%-14
03/12/20247.00102101.50.49%6.64%6.73%-9
26/02/20256.2097.3896.880.52%6.65%6.74%-9
12/06/20256.2597.3896.880.52%6.69%6.77%-8
28/11/20266.6098.3897.880.51%6.84%6.91%-7
23/03/20276.8599.75990.76%6.89%7.00%-11
29/11/20276.7598.75980.77%6.92%7.03%-10
03/11/20286.6597.2596.630.64%7.01%7.09%-8
26/02/20306.6596.7596.380.38%7.05%7.09%-5
22/04/20317.0098.2598.250.00%7.20%7.20%0
23/03/20327.0097.6397.50.13%7.27%7.28%-1
02/11/20357.0597.2596.750.52%7.33%7.38%-5
23/03/20377.259796.250.78%7.55%7.62%-8

 

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