A Stronger Dollar due to Expectations of Interest Hike

Lebanese Forex Market

Demand for the dollar on the Lebanese forex market declined over the past week, where the value of the Lebanese pound against the dollar stood at a mid-price of $/LP 1,514 within the range $/LP 1,513.75-1,514.25 on Friday, compared to a mid-price of $/LP 1,514.25 within the range of $/LP 1,514 -1,514.50, last week.

Foreign assets (excluding gold) at the Central Bank increased 9.36% since the beginning of the year to $40.56B by October 2016, boosted by the recent swap executed by BDL with the MoF and Lebanese banks. The dollarization ratio of private sector deposits increased from 64.88% in December 2015 to 64.98% in September 2016.

By Friday the 18th of November 2016, the euro depreciated against the dollar-pegged LP over the last week, going from €/LBP 1,638.65 to €/LBP 1,598.25. As for the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) of the LBP, it rose by 0.87% to reach 118.28 points. Worth noting that BLOMINVEST Research department has recalculated the NEER, taking 2015 as the base year and the updated weights of Lebanon’s major trading partners.

International Forex Market:

The US dollar strengthened this week, due to traders’ reinforced view that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December and speculations that the new administration will boost spending. Hence the Euro/Dollar exchange rate went from €/$ 1.0870, last week, to €/$1.0602 this week.

Commodities:

Over the past week, gold prices decreased from $$1,255.89/ounce to $1,212.86/ounce this week.

18/11/2016 11/11/2016 %Change YTD
Euro / LBP            1,598.25 1,638.650 -2.47%
Euro / Dollar 1.0602 1.0870 -2.47%
NEER Index** 118.28 117.26 0.87% 8.12%

 

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