Deflation at 4.08% in October 2015

According to the Central Administration of Statistics (CAS), consumer prices in Lebanon fell by 4.08% in October since the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined from 100.97 in October 2014 to 96.84 in October 2015.  On a year-to-date basis, consumer prices fell by 2.46% on account of subdued energy prices but also on account of a weaker euro, especially since around 40% of Lebanon’s imports come from Europe. The common-currency lost 9% since year start, going from €/$ 1.2097 in December to €/$ 1.1005 in October 2015.

October’s deflation was mainly due to lower energy prices. Due to oversupply on the market, the price of Brent crude oil was slashed by a yearly 42% from $85.86/per barrel in October 2014 to $49.56 per barrel in October 2015. This was reflected by the 19.61% y-o-y slump in the price of “water, electricity gas and other fuels”, a component with a weight of 11.9 in the CPI. With cheaper oil, the price of transportation also declined by 12.71% in October 2015.

The basket of food and non-alcoholic beverages is also responsible for October’s deflation. This basket holds a share of 20.6 in the CPI and its price slid by 0.79% y-o-y.

In spite of lower energy and F&B prices, some baskets of goods and services witnessed price upturns in October. Education prices, with a weight of 5.9 in the CPI, rose by a yearly 1.52% while the prices of clothing and footwear, with a weight of 5.4 in the CPI, increased by 1.37%. 

Yearly CPI Components Change in October

Deflation at 4.08% in October 2015

Source: Central Administration of Statistics

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