According to both Moody’s and Fitch, the end of the presidential deadlock in Lebanon holds positive prospects for the country’s economy; however, improvement would be gradual and the economy will remain constrained given the ongoing Syrian war and weak public finances. The election of General Michel Aoun as a President will positively impact the consumer confidence, the investment environment and deposits’ growth.
According to Moody’s, political stability will limit the decelerating growth of deposit inflows, which settled at 3.8% by August 2016, compared to 5.1% in December 2015. Moreover, this political shock has the potential to control further fiscal deficits that have averaged at 7.4% of GDP over the past 5 years. Fitch believes that the war in Syria will most likely limit the economic benefits of such political change, as tourism, real estate, and construction, the main contributors to the real GDP, have significantly slowed down over the past 5 years.
Latest Moody’s and Fitch Ratings
| Rating | Outlook | Date | |
| S&P Rating | B- | Stable | 02-Sep-16 |
| Fitch Rating | B- | Stable | 14-Jul-16 |
| Moody’s Rating | B2 | Negative | 16-Dec-14 |