Treasury Market Gains Propelled by Heightened Geopolitical Risk: US & North Korea

Over the past week, the BLOM Bond Index (BBI) lost 0.52% to settle at 104.12 points, while it was still surpassed by the JP Morgan Emerging Markets’ Bond Index (EMBI) which declined by 0.35%, to end the week at 791.86 points. 

The yields on the Lebanese Eurobonds maturing in 5 and 10 years increased from last week’s 6.13% and 6.73% to 6.28% and 6.81% this week, respectively.

In the US, Trump stepped up his threats on North Korea this week, heightening geopolitical tensions between the two countries, which increased the demand on treasuries as investors sought safe haven assets. Moreover, data on wholesale inflation was released this week revealing a Producer Price Index losing 0.1% against market expectations of a 0.1% gain, which can be bearish to bonds and cautious to the FED’s interest rate hike later this year.

As such, the yield on the 5 year treasuries slipped from 1.79% last week to 1.78%, its lowest level since June 27th. Similarly, the yield on the 10 year treasury notes dropped by 4 basis points to a six-week  low of 2.2% this week.

The 5 Year and 10 Year spreads between the Lebanese Eurobonds and their US comparable rose from 434 basis points (bps) and 449 bps last week, to 450 bps and 461 bps, respectively, this week.

 Weekly Change of Lebanese Eurobonds Prices

 PricesWeeklyYieldsWeekly
Maturity Coupon in %10/08/201703/08/2017Change 10/08/201703/08/2017Change bps
12/11/20185.15100.5100.50.00%4.73%4.74%-1
23/04/20195.5100.05100.25-0.20%5.46%5.34%12
20/05/20196100.88101.13-0.25%5.47%5.33%14
28/11/20195.4599.7599.88-0.13%5.56%5.50%6
09/03/20206.375101.75101.88-0.13%5.63%5.59%5
14/04/20205.899.75100.25-0.50%5.90%5.69%20
19/06/20206.15100.5101-0.50%5.95%5.76%19
12/04/20218.25107107.38-0.35%6.09%5.99%10
04/10/20226.199.1399.75-0.62%6.30%6.15%14
27/01/2023698.2598.75-0.51%6.38%6.27%11
22/04/20246.65100.5101.13-0.62%6.55%6.44%12
04/11/20246.2598.2598.88-0.64%6.56%6.44%11
03/12/20247.00102.5103.13-0.61%6.56%6.46%11
26/02/20256.2097.8898.38-0.51%6.56%6.47%9
12/06/20256.259898.38-0.39%6.58%6.52%6
28/11/20266.6099.25100-0.75%6.71%6.60%11
23/03/20276.85100.5101-0.50%6.78%6.71%7
29/11/20276.7599.38100-0.62%6.83%6.75%8
03/11/20286.659898.5-0.51%6.91%6.84%7
26/02/20306.6597.7598.5-0.76%6.92%6.83%9
22/04/20317.0099.75100.38-0.63%7.03%6.95%7
23/03/20327.0099.25100.13-0.88%7.08%6.98%10
02/11/20357.0598.3899.38-1.01%7.21%7.11%10
23/03/20377.2599.63100.38-0.75%7.28%7.21%7

 

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