MENA Review and Quarterly Outlook – Q3 2013

The gap further widened between oil importers and oil exporters in the Middle East during the third quarter of 2013. The formers’ economies suffered from political turbulences with deteriorating resources to hedge upon for survival, while the latters’ economies marched on enhancing schemes to boost growth. To start with Syria, the Middle East’s current core war replacing the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, the situation on field remains unresolved with the opposition splitting into multiple rival camps. The economy descends into the abyss and diplomatic clearance awaits the Geneva conference in 22 Jan 2014. In Lebanon, no political power is exercised with a caretaking government and failed attempts for a new one, increasing the sovereign risk of a country already situated in a heavy conflict zone. A long list of security incidents further dampened consumption and investment thus tightening resources to the country. Jordan suffered from the Syrian influx weighing on its markets and regional turbulences hindered tourism, otherwise economy is expected to record a good growth exceeding 3% for both 2013 and 2014. In Egypt where the demonstrations-driven politics ruled over the past 2 years, the transitional government has new allies and foreign aids from KSA and UAE are expected to alleviate the economy until a political stability is achieved. On the oil exporters’ side, Qatar focuses its efforts on growing domestic lending and increasing national employment while maintaining a robust economic growth. Labor strategies are more pronounced in Saudi Arabia which has also increased oil production to compensate for shortfalls arising from supply disruptions in the Middle East. As for the UAE, the recovery from 2009 crisis continues, supported by diversified projects non-inclusive of oil leading to an estimated 4.3% growth in the non-oil sector for 2013.

MENA Review and Quarterly Outlook – Q3 2013

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