| 11/02/2021 | 04/02/2021 | Change | Year to Date | |
| BLOM Bond Index (BBI) | 14.78 | 14.58 | 1.38% | -1.19% |
| Weighted Yield | 86.47% | 86.72% | -0.29% | 3.61% |
| Weighted Spread | 8,641 | 8,668 | -0.31% | 4.39% |
The overall political climate in Lebanon is tense. The murder of a well-known critic writer and director “Lokman Slim” was the hit for this week. But like Beirut August exploision, resolution on its murder is not expected. Impunity had became a tradition in Lebanon. Moreover, forming a new government in the short-run remains the biggest challenge for our politicians, through hope is regained after the meeting that will be held today between the President Michel Aoun and the Prime minister Hariri.
Moreover, Lebanon has been in lockdown due to high coronavirus infections, one of the strictest lockdowns in the world, but there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Lebanon is supposed to receive its first doses of the Pfizer vaccine by tomorrow.
The BLOM Bond Index (BBI) which is BLOMInvest Bank’s market value-weighted index tracking the performance of the Lebanese government Eurobonds’ market (excluding coupon payments), increased by 1.38% from the week of February 4th to stand at 14.78 points in the week ending February 11, 2021. Meanwhile, the JP Morgan EMBI went down from 986.96 in week of February 4th to 926.89 points this week.
As such, the yield of the 5 year (5Y) Lebanese Eurobonds increased during this period from 70.00% to 71.10%. In contrast, the 10 year (10Y) Lebanese Eurobond yield decreased from 54.60% to 53.90% during the same period.
In the US, the economy is still struggling but confidence in a recovery is growing, rapidly. On the health front, President Joe Biden, announced that the administration had secured deals for another 200 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine, taking the US total to 600 million. Hence, demand for US treasuries remained stable as the 5 year (5Y) yield stood at 0.46% same as last week’s level. Similarly, the 10 year (10Y) US yield, slightly increased from 1.15% to 1.16%.
As such, the 5Y and 10Y spread between the yield on Lebanese Eurobonds and their US comparables narrowed from 7,298 bps and 5,553 bps to 7,064 bps and 5,274 respectively.
5 Year Credit Default Swaps, Mid-Prices (in basis points)
| 11/02/2021 | 04/02/2021 | |
| Lebanon | N/A | N/A |
| KSA | 63 | 63 |
| Dubai | 105 | 110 |
| Brazil | 153 | 149 |
| Turkey | 293 | 287 |
| Source: Bloomberg | ||
Weekly Change of Lebanese Eurobonds Prices
| Prices | Weekly | Yields | Weekly | ||||
| Maturity | Coupon in % | 11/02/2021 | 04/02/2021 | Change | 11/02/2021 | 04/02/2021 | Change bps |
| 10/4/2022 | 6.10 | 13.55 | 13.50 | 0.39% | 191.54% | 189.42% | 211 |
| 1/27/2023 | 6.00 | 13.52 | 13.25 | 2.08% | 158.17% | 158.97% | -80 |
| 4/22/2024 | 6.65 | 13.54 | 13.30 | 1.78% | 99.69% | 100.42% | -73 |
| 11/4/2024 | 6.25 | 13.54 | 13.29 | 1.86% | 86.07% | 86.89% | -82 |
| 12/3/2024 | 7.00 | 13.42 | 13.31 | 0.86% | 88.42% | 88.95% | -54 |
| 2/26/2025 | 6.20 | 13.53 | 13.29 | 1.82% | 80.98% | 81.65% | -68 |
| 6/12/2025 | 6.25 | 13.75 | 13.57 | 1.31% | 75.95% | 76.47% | -51 |
| 11/28/2026 | 6.60 | 13.54 | 13.34 | 1.46% | 64.81% | 65.39% | -58 |
| 3/23/2027 | 6.85 | 13.48 | 13.32 | 1.27% | 64.41% | 64.90% | -49 |
| 11/29/2027 | 6.75 | 13.45 | 13.29 | 1.17% | 60.65% | 61.16% | -51 |
| 11/3/2028 | 6.65 | 13.54 | 13.30 | 1.82% | 56.53% | 57.36% | -83 |
| 2/26/2030 | 6.65 | 13.49 | 13.24 | 1.88% | 53.86% | 54.64% | -78 |
| 4/22/2031 | 7.00 | 13.51 | 13.34 | 1.21% | 54.08% | 54.79% | -71 |
| 3/23/2032 | 7.00 | 13.44 | 13.30 | 1.04% | 53.57% | 54.08% | -50 |
| 11/2/2035 | 7.05 | 13.52 | 13.33 | 1.47% | 52.10% | 52.92% | -81 |
| 3/23/2037 | 7.25 | 13.80 | 13.64 | 1.19% | 52.41% | 53.05% | -64 |
Source: BLOMInvest Bank