A World of Disorder: Putin Turning the Ruble into Gold Substitute

01/04/202224/03/2022%ChangeYTD
Euro / LP1,664.931,676.90-0.71%-2.56%
Euro / Dollar1.10441.1124-0.71%-2.56%
NEER Index156.86158.66-1.13%4.66%

Lebanese Forex Market

To-date, the Lebanese Pound (LBP) remained steady within the official range of USD/LBP 1,514 to 1,514.5, with a mid- price of USD/LBP 1,514.25 in the last week of March, 2022.

On a different note, the Lebanese pound traded with a lower range on the parallel market during this week swinging between 23.700LBP/USD and 24,200LBP/USD.

This week, the Lebanese pound underwent pressures resulting from concerns over judiciary tightening over Central Bank Governor and Banks’ owners. In addition, Banks resumed selling the local currency on Sayrafa Platform at a higher rate of 22,050 LBP/USD compared to previous rates last week.

In turn, the dollarization ratio for private sector deposits decreased from 79.25% in December 2021 to 79.25% in January 2022.

As for the Euro/LBP currency pair, the Euro depreciated against the dollar-pegged LBP with the currency pair going from last week €/LBP 1,676.90 to €/LBP 1,664.93 by April 01, 2022. Moreover, the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) of the Lebanese pound slightly decreased weekly by 1.13% to stand at 156.86 points on April 01, 2022.

International Forex Market

The Euro/USD depreciated against the dollar from last week from €/USD 1.1124 to €/USD 1.1044 by April 01, 2022. The Ukraine war has shaped another supply shock on top of an already high inflation rate in the Eurozone. February data of inflation showed a yearly uptick of 5.9% which weighed on the Euro currency and added pressure on the response from the European Central Bank.

Commodities

Gold price slightly decreased by 1.61% at the end of this week to $1,926.04/ounce as Russian Banks followed an extensive sell for gold to the Central bank of Russia at a discount prices. This act is coupled with Putin’s announcement of forcing the energy payments to be conducted in Rubles, so as to strengthen the Ruble internationally as well as encouraging international gold flows into Russia.  One question to keep in mind: would the Dollars remain the dominant currency worldwide?

Crude oil prices decreased at the end of this week by 10.86% to $100.14/Barrel. Energy prices and markets would remain unstable amid geopolitical and supply risks. However, the drop this week is a result of President Biden’s announcement about release US oil reserves after failing to bring Gulf partners on his side.

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