In its latest World Economic Outlook of April 2022, the IMF posited that “the war in Ukraine has triggered a costly humanitarian crisis that demands a peaceful resolution”. At the same time, “economic damage from the conflict will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022 and add to inflation. Fuel and food prices have increased rapidly, hitting vulnerable populations in low-income countries hardest”.
As such, “global growth is projected to slow from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2023. Beyond 2023, global growth is forecast to decline to about 3.3 percent over the medium term”. In terms of inflation, “war-induced commodity price increases and broadening price pressures have led to 2022 inflation projections of 5.7 percent in advanced economies and 8.7 percent in emerging market and developing economies”. As a result, “multilateral efforts to respond to the humanitarian crisis, prevent further economic fragmentation, maintain global liquidity, manage debt distress, tackle climate change, and end the pandemic are essential”.
In the MENA region, growth prospects have improved from 4.1 percent to 5 percent in 2022 as the region is on balance an energy-exporting region. As to Lebanon, no estimates were provided, even as the country has just signed a staff-level agreement with the IMF; though other sources, like the IIF, have put the estimate at 2.5 percent in 2022.
|Real GDP Growth in Percent||April 2022 Estimates||October 2021 Estimates|