The Honeymoon between BDL and Mikati’s Government is over: Lira rate Above LBP/USD 30,000

20/05/202213/05/2022%ChangeYTD
Euro / LP1,591.461,566.471.60%-6.86%
Euro / Dollar1.05571.03911.60%-6.86%
NEER Index160.65161.59-0.58%7.19%

 

Lebanese Forex Market

To-date, the Lebanese Pound (LBP) remained steady within the official range of USD/LBP 1,514 to 1,514.5, with a mid- price of USD/LBP 1,514.25 by 20 May, 2022.

This week, the Lebanese lira has plunged against the dollar in the parallel market and recorded above 30,000 LBP/USD for the first time since January 2022. We can say that the deal between Mikati’s Government and BDL governor to maintain the lira stable at the range of LBP/USD 20,000/25,000 ahead of parliamentary election has come to an end now. Of course, Lebanon is in front of several constitutional events like forming a new government, and choosing a new prime minister. This kind of events takes time in Lebanon due to political conflicts between Lebanese parties. Of course the politicians must bear in mind that the country is in a severe economic crisis and must act instantly in order to from the new government as soon as possible.  Failing to do that will have a catastrophic effect on the Lebanese economy and on the lira rate.

As for the Euro/LBP currency pair, the Euro appreciated against the dollar-pegged LBP with the currency pair going from last week €/LBP 1,566.47 to €/LBP 1,591.46 by May 20, 2022. Moreover, the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) of the Lebanese pound slightly decreased weekly by 0.58% to stand at 160.65 points on May 20, 2022.

International Forex Market

The Euro/USD appreciated against the dollar from last week from €/USD 1.0391 to €/USD 1.0557 by May 20, 2022. The Euro-to-Dollar rate has improved this week amid the drop in US 10-year treasury yields by 2.7%, making the dollar less-attractive asset.

Commodities

Gold prices increased by 1.70% at the end of this week to $1,841.2/ounce; consequently, we are back to the usual negative correlation between the US dollar and the gold price. Of course, the geopolitical tensions are leading to a higher inflation rate, which increases the price of gold.

Crude oil prices increased at the end of this week by 1.11% to $112.79/Barrel. The volatility in the energy market remains high and unpredictable amid the geopolitical tensions.

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