Period of Turmoil For Currencies As Central Banks Battle Inflation

Lebanese Forex Market

To-date, the Lebanese Pound (LBP) remained steady within the official range of USD/LBP 1,514 to 1,514.5, with a mid- price of USD/LBP 1,514.25 by September 16, 2022.

On the parallel market this week, the Lebanese national currency has fluctuated between a minimum of LBP/USD 35,300 and a maximum of LBP/USD 38,200 ending the week at the highest levels ever since the start of the Lebanese crisis.

The Lebanese pound seems going on a rally coaster in the next couple of weeks due to higher risks expectations. Further pressure on the local currency and higher volatile prices would likely to be seen in the next period as the Central Bank announced the ending of gasoline imports subsidies on sayrafa exchange rate, thus making the number of dollars injected through Sayrafa declining in the last days.

As for the Euro/LBP currency pair, the Euro depreciated slightly against the dollar-pegged LBP with the currency pair going from last week €/LBP 1,516,64 to €/LBP 1,502.69 by September 16, 2022. Moreover, the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) of the Lebanese pound slightly increased marginally by 0.58% weekly to stand at 170.44 points on September 16, 2022.

International Forex Market

The Euro has retreated against the dollar by the end of the week and closed at $0.9968, while the dollar index that tracks the greenback against six major currencies has gradually reclaimed its position during this week and traded 0.78% higher at $109.89. The Eurozone ended the week on a lower level as the market reacted badly to the Eurozone inflation that stood at 9.1% with the energy and food prices surging.

Commodities

Gold prices dropped by 3.74% to $1,663.2/ounce, near a two-year low on Friday. The yellow metal is set for a decline in the upcoming few days as an elevated dollar and expectation of a more aggressive U.S. rate hike next week would hold the gold prices on low levels.

Crude oil prices added 0.26% this week but prices remained relatively low at $85.34/barrel. The supply concerns including the depletion of the strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) pushed oil prices higher by the start of the week; however, demand concerns had reappeared as potential interest rates hikes would trigger a recession faster than expected, thus leading to lower demand.