According to the Central Administration of Statistics (CAS) the consumer price index (CPI) fell from 100.92 points in January 2014 to 97.13 points by the end of January 2015, recording a 3.75% yearly downtick; one of its lowest levels in the past 5 years . With an average inflation rate of 1.85% in the past year, overall prices in Lebanon have been rising at a slower pace, only to start declining in December 2014.
In January, out of the 12 sub-indices, 5 declined while 8 witnessed yearly increases.
In terms of annual drop, communication prices, holding a weight of 4.6% in the CPI, posted the greatest decrease of 23.71% (y-o-y) by January 2015. This was due to the Lebanese Ministry of Telecommunication launching, in Mid-May, a series of measures to lower internet and mobile tariffs. Furthermore, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (11.9% of the CPI) experienced a yearly drop of 18.10% while transportation (13.1% of the CPI) was tailing by an annual decrease of 14.07%. These declines are primarily due to the staggering slip of international crude oil prices. In details, Brent and WTI crude oil registered in January 2015 a decrease of 58.69% and 54.75% (y-o-y) to end up at a 6 year low of $45.25 and $44.45, respectively. This trend of declining International oil prices has been prominent throughout 2014 to January 2015. Hence, arose the gradual descent in the prices of 20L Octane 98 and 95, which reached 34%. The final 2 sub-indices that waned were food and non-alcoholic beverages (20.6% of the CPI) and that of health (7.8% of the CPI) by respective 1.14% and 2.07% y-o-y.
On the other hand, by the end of January 2015 actual rent sub-index (old and new rent), with a stake of 3.4% in the CPI, increased annually by 8.96%. Education sub-index, constituting 5.9% of the CPI, augmented by 4.55% while clothing and footwear went up by 17.48% y-o-y, (5.4% weight) possibly on improving consumer sentiment following the holiday season.
% change in price January (y-o-y)
Source: CAS