How Strong is the Impact of Exports on BDL’s Foreign Reserves? A Simple View
| Million USD | Foreign Reserves: FR | Total Exports: X | Δ Foreign Reserves: ΔFR | Δ Total Exports: ΔX |
| Jun-23 | 9,300 | 1,082.90 | ||
| Jul-23 | 8,780 | 1,216.37 | -520 | 133.47 |
| Aug-23 | 8,870 | 1,250.59 | 90 | 34.22 |
| Sep-23 | 8,960 | 1,089.06 | 90 | -161.53 |
| Oct-23 | 9,140 | 1,017.58 | 180 | -71.48 |
| Nov-23 | 9,270 | 868.9 | 130 | -148.68 |
| Dec-23 | 9,520 | 962.71 | 250 | 93.81 |
| Jan-24 | 9,580 | 937.08 | 60 | -25.63 |
| Feb-24 | 9,780 | 809.86 | 200 | -127.22 |
| Mar-24 | 9,810 | 929.43 | 30 | 119.57 |
| Apr-24 | 9,880 | 939.54 | 70 | 10.11 |
| May-24 | 10,080 | 1,110.86 | 200 | 171.32 |
| Jun-24 | 10,120 | 981.61 | 40 | -129.25 |
| Jul-24 | 10,440 | 1,194.22 | 320 | 212.61 |
| Aug-24 | 10,700 | 965.35 | 260 | -228.87 |
| Sep-24 | 10,850 | 861.25 | 150 | -104.1 |
| Oct-24 | 10,260 | 705.65 | -590 | -155.6 |
| Nov-24 | 10,150 | 601.31 | -110 | -104.34 |
| Dec-24 | 10,130 | 879.83 | -20 | 278.52 |
| Jan-25 | 10,380 | 929.75 | 250 | 49.92 |
| Feb-25 | 10,520 | 889.9 | 140 | -39.85 |
| Mar-25 | 10,720 | 835.12 | 200 | -54.78 |
| Apr-25 | 11,060 | 925.83 | 340 | 90.71 |
| May-25 | 11,110 | 1127.4 | 50 | 201.57 |
| Jun-25 | 11,320 | 993.69 | 210 | -133.71 |
| Jul-25 | 11,480 | 1,433.14 | 160 | 439.45 |
| Aug-25 | 11,660 | 1,198.97 | 180 | -234.17 |
| Sep-25 | 11,750 | 1,035.94 | 90 | -163.03 |
| Oct-25 | 11,860 | 962.4 | 110 | -73.54 |
| Nov-25 | 11,840 | 833.75 | -20 | -128.65 |
| Dec-25 | 11,890 | 1,194.55 | 50 | 360.8 |
| Average | 10,361 | 922.41 | 86.33 | 3.72 |
Source: BDL
It is widely believed that the Lebanese economy started on the path of stability in early summer 2023, mostly with the stabilization of the exchange rate. The election of a new president and the formation of a new reform government in early 2025 have surely added to the stability and reform momentum, but that has unfortunately put on hold by the war with Israel that Hezbollah has imposed on the country since the beginning of March 2026. As a result, the economy is currently in a severe recessionary mode, and one of its most salient features is the loss of foreign reserves at BDL, which fell by $440 million in the months of March and April 2026. Of course, what adds insult to injury is that the sources of economic activity that nourish BDL’s foreign reserves have been negatively affected too, because of the war: through the current account, these are exports and remittances; and through the capital account, FDI and official loans.
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