An Alternative View of the Lebanese Economic Recovery in 2025

1.Intoduction

Was the economic recovery that Lebanon witnessed in 2025 based on a sustainable productive activity that can be built on? Or was it a fragile and artificial recovery? Were the economic activities legitimate? And how can we know?

The Lebanese Economy recorded in 2025 the best performance in more than a decade, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at 3.5% as per World Bank estimation, and 3.8% per BDL. And the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was in the growth zone (above 50) for the full year 2025 for the first time since PMI data was first collected in Lebanon in May 2013, and also reached 51.5 in September 2025, which was the highest reading ever.

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