Initial Estimate of the Impact of the Current War on Lebanese GDP: A Brief Note

In 2024, the war between Israel and the military wing of Hezbollah[1] lasted for two months from late September to late November. The World bank (WB) had estimated that, absent the war, the Lebanese economy would have grown by 0.9% in real terms. But after the war, it had estimated that the Lebanese economy sell by -7.1%. So this implies that the impact of the war in those two months in 2024 was a decline in Lebanese GDP at the rate of -8% — or, on average, a decline at the rate of -4% in each of the two months[2].

[1] Interesting to note that, since March 2026, the military wing of Hezbollah has been outlawed by the Lebanese government.

[2] WB, Lebanon Economic Monitor, Issues: Fall 2024; and Spring 2025.

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