UAB: Beyond the Safe Haven – What Really Drives Gold Prices?

Gold has traditionally been regarded as a safe-haven asset, offering protection against inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and financial instability. However, its historical performance suggests that wars, economic crises, and rising energy prices do not necessarily translate into sustained price increases. In its September 2026 report, “Gold Beyond the Safe Haven: What Has Really Driven Its Price Since 1980?”, the Union of Arab Banks (UAB) examines 46 years of gold-price movements to identify the underlying forces shaping its performance. Drawing on data from the World Gold Council, the Federal Reserve, and the US Energy Information Administration, the report argues that gold responds primarily to the financial consequences of external shocks, particularly changes in US real interest rates and the dollar. It also highlights the growing importance of central-bank purchases and investment demand in reshaping the gold market.

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