US Economy Grew by 3% in Second Quarter of 2024
| 26/09/2024 | 19/09/2024 | Change | Year to Date | |
| BLOM Bond Index (BBI) | 5.33 | 5.44 | -2.02% | -11.61% |
| Weighted Yield | 239.13% | 229.58% | 4.16% | 172.30% |
| Weighted Spread | 23,456.41 | 22,485.95 | 4.32% | 167.28% |
| 26/09/2024 | 19/09/2024 | Change | |
| BBI | 5.33 | 5.44 | -2.02% |
| JP Morgan EMBI | 914.70 | 916.60 | -0.21% |
| 5Y LEB | 112.60% | 109.60% | 300 |
| 10Y LEB | 108.80% | 106.20% | 260 |
| 5Y US | 3.55% | 3.49% | 6 |
| 10Y US | 3.79% | 3.73% | 6 |
| 5Y SPREAD | 10,905 | 10,611 | 294 |
| 10Y SPREAD | 10,501 | 10,247 | 254 |
The BLOM Bond Index (BBI) which is BLOMInvest Bank’s market value-weighted index tracking the performance of the Lebanese government Eurobond’s market (excluding coupon payments), decreased throughout the course of the week by 2.02%, to reach 5.33 points by September 26th, 2024 as the war with Israel escalated. Similarly, JP Morgan EMBI declined by 0.21% to stand at 914.7 points on September 26th, 2024 compared to 916.6 points on September 19th, 2024.
The yield on the five-year (5Y) and the ten year (10Y) Lebanese Eurobonds increased by 300 bps and 260 bps respectively to stand at 112.6% and 108.8% by the week ending September 26th, 2024 compared to the previous week.
US yield curve shifted upward over the course of the week as one, five and ten years’ yields rose by 3, 6, and 6 bps to stand at 3.96%, 3.55% and 3.79% respectively on September 26th, 2024 compared to the previous week.
The ten-year US Treasury yield increased over the course of the week after the release of some economic and labor sector data.
On Monday, both S&P Global Composite and Services PMI for September 2024 showed expansion in the private sector on the United States and better than the expectations where S&P Global Composite PMI recorded 54.4 and S&P Global Services PMI recorded 55.4. Later, on Thursday, GDP growth rate quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) was released and recorded 3% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to 1.6% in the previous quarter.
On Thursday, US Labor Department released data regarding the labor market which were somehow decent. In details, US initial jobless claims, being the number of people claiming unemployment benefits, declined by 4,000 from the prior week to reach 218,000 on the period ending September 21sh on contrary to the expectations of an increase to 225,000. However, the continuing jobless claims rose from 1,821 thousands to 1,834 thousands for the week ending September 14th, 2024. Furthermore, the four-week moving average for initial jobless claims that dismiss week-to-week volatility dropped to record 224.75 thousands. Note the unemployment rate increased to 4.2% over the course of 2024.
In turn, the 5Y and 10Y spread between the yield on Lebanese Eurobonds and their US comparable increased by 294 and 254 bps to record 10,905 and 10,501 bps respectively by the week ending September 26th, 2024.
| 5Y Credit Default Swaps (CDS) | ||
| 26/09/2024 | 19/09/2024 | |
| KSA | 59 | 55 |
| Dubai | 59 | 60 |
| Brazil | 155 | 137 |
| Turkey | 270 | 256 |
| Source: Bloomberg | ||
Weekly Change of Lebanese Eurobonds Prices
| Prices | Weekly | Yields | Weekly | ||||
| Maturity | Coupon in % | 26/09/2024 | 19/09/2024 | Change | 26/09/2024 | 19/09/2024 | Change bps |
| 12/06/2025 | 6.25 | 6.482 | 6.645 | -2.45% | 1140.87% | 1061.61% | 7925.364372 |
| 28/11/2026 | 6.6 | 6.37 | 6.539 | -2.58% | 223.96% | 218.50% | 545.5632793 |
| 23/03/2027 | 6.85 | 6.438 | 6.521 | -1.27% | 200.42% | 197.22% | 319.299805 |
| 29/11/2027 | 6.75 | 6.432 | 6.526 | -1.44% | 157.79% | 155.58% | 220.784174 |
| 03/11/2028 | 6.65 | 6.369 | 6.526 | -2.41% | 132.12% | 129.46% | 265.8077167 |
| 26/02/2030 | 6.65 | 6.389 | 6.534 | -2.22% | 114.75% | 112.94% | 180.8684577 |
| 22/04/2031 | 7 | 6.371 | 6.534 | -2.49% | 112.73% | 110.00% | 273.6818926 |
| 23/03/2032 | 7 | 6.364 | 6.551 | -2.85% | 111.90% | 108.84% | 306.5991463 |
| 02/11/2035 | 7.05 | 6.421 | 6.551 | -1.98% | 107.78% | 105.48% | 230.3155227 |
| 23/03/2037 | 7.25 | 6.495 | 6.522 | -0.41% | 111.44% | 110.87% | 56.78704661 |
Source: BLOMInvest Bank
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