Markets Overvalue Lebanese Eurobonds Prices

On 30 March 2026, Goldman Sachs (GS) published a CEEMEA in Focus research note titled “Bond Math Suggests Further Downside Risks to Lebanon Recovery Values”. The report argues that despite the decline in Eurobonds prices since the re-escalation of the war, this pricing remains too generous. In GS’ view, the renewed conflict has worsened the three structural parameters that determine the Eurobonds valuation: the timing of the restructuring, the nominal haircut, and the exit yield. Against this backdrop, GS values Lebanese Eurobonds at 22–23¢. We conduct a scenario analysis that lowers valuation to 19¢.

For the full report, click HERE.