The World Bank recently published the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI). In this respect, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region ranked in the mid-range on global anticorruption indices but showed significant differences among countries.
Source: Transparency International
This makes us wonder if the region’s trends mirror global trends and if MENA countries follow the same patterns. To answer these questions, the Middle East Council on Global Affairs (MECGA), a policy research institution, published in October 2024 a report titled “Anticorruption in MENA: Insights and Global Comparisons”. This report examines the way factors like Government Effectiveness (GE), Voice and Accountability (VOA), Political Stability (PS), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) impact corruption levels in the region.
Regression Analysis Results
Source: Middle East Council on Global Affairs
MECGA’s report included a regression analysis to determine the best predictors for corruption control.
Globally, GE and VOA had the strongest links to corruption control. Countries with high GE and VOA levels tend to manage corruption better, possibly because one influences the other, or because effective governments often also provide quality services and respect citizens’ rights.
In the MENA region, GE and GDP per capita were the top predictors of corruption control, with PS having a modest influence. This suggests wealthier countries with advanced public services can invest more in fighting corruption. This was also the case for MENA Oil producers, while MENA Non-Oil producers had GE alone as the best predictor of corruption control.
Bloomberg Economics made the above chart using its calculations and data from the World Bank’s political stability and absence of violence, and Freedom House’s political rights score. As shown, Tunisia and Iraq are the only MENA countries on the democratic side. However, Tunisia’s democratic performance has recently declined, and Iraq’s democracy is near the limits.
In theory, citizens in a free country can remove corrupt leaders and elect new ones that are hopefully better. But democracy is not strongly linked to high corruption control in the MENA region. In fact, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries perform best in anticorruption metrics despite being authoritarian. In addition, the new MENA leaders elected after the Arab Spring did not improve corruption control.
As for Lebanon, it ranks low in both stability and democracy, placing it in a “failed” zone due to ongoing conflict. The current Israeli-Hezbollah war, driven by one political party, raises doubts about Lebanon’s democratic status. The stability index, which measures political stability and the absence of violence, also shows failure. Despite holding elections, Lebanon currently has no president and is run by a caretaker cabinet.
Lebanon ranked 149th out of 180 in Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index, and this ranking is expected to drop further. Being a non-oil producer in MENA, GE is the top predictor of corruption control for Lebanon. The current war has worsened access to public services and created multiple crises, including a healthcare emergency. Additionally, Lebanon was recently placed on the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list, highlighting more corruption concerns.
However, Lebanon has the potential to improve as it is near the limits. If a ceasefire is achieved and reforms are implemented, Lebanon could move out of the “failed” zone, taking a positive step forward and towards combating corruption.
MENA Average Political Stability and Control of Corruption 2000 – 2020
Source: Middle East Council on Global Affairs
Another way MENA differs from global trends is its strong link between political stability and control of corruption, even more than in low-income countries worldwide. Transparency International even argues that corruption drives the ongoing conflict in the region. Countries at the bottom of Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index list, such as Lebanon and Syria, are also conflict zones. This is expected, as they struggle to build strong accountability institutions due to other priorities amid the ongoing wars in these countries. Constant threats of violence make it hard for the government to enforce laws. These issues worsen further when there is a civil war/local tensions risk.
In conclusion, the MENA region has its own unique trends that don’t always align with global patterns, so it needs customized solutions. As efforts to democratize slow down and the impact of VOA on controlling corruption is limited, tackling corruption might need a new approach, possibly a more technical one. The United Arab Emirates, which ranks first in the region and 26th globally in Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index, is leading the way by using technology to improve business operations and digitalize public services. This could be a promising direction to manage corruption, but it’s important to remember that countries within the region have different challenges and trends.
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