Demand on US Treasuries Slips as Concerns Escalate on US Trade, the NAFTA, and China

The BLOM Bond Index (BBI) rose by a marginal 0.09% over the week to stand at 102.79 points by January 11, 2018. The BBI slightly outperformed the JP Morgan Emerging Markets’ Bond Index (EMBI) which registered a 0.27% downtick to stand at 807.7 points.  

The BBI was supported by an increased demand on Lebanese Eurobonds maturing in 5 and 10 years (5Y and 10Y) as their respective yields slipped from last week’s 6.52% and 7.12%, to 6.2% and 7.02% this week.

As such, the 5Y and 10Y spreads between the Lebanese Eurobonds and their US comparable narrowed from last week’s 425 basis points (bps) and 466 bps to 388 bps and 448 bps, respectively.

Demand for US treasuries weakened during the week owing it to investors’ anxiousness on the country’s sixth round of NAFTA talks scheduled for Jan.23rd. Moreover, investors were less excited about safe haven treasuries as China, the largest holder of US treasuries, sent out a message stating it may retaliate on US trade through its treasury purchases, if the USA dissociates itself from the NAFTA.

Accordingly, the yields on the 5Y and 10Y US treasuries rose from 2.27% and 2.46% to 2.32% and 2.54%, respectively.

Weekly Change of Lebanese Eurobonds Prices

 PricesWeeklyYieldsWeekly
Maturity Coupon in %11/01/201804/01/2018Change 11/01/201804/01/2018Change bps
23/04/20195.5100.25100.31-0.06%5.29%4.77%52
20/05/20196100.88100.380.50%5.31%5.19%13
28/11/20195.45100101-0.99%5.45%5.23%21
09/03/20206.375101.63100.131.50%5.56%5.37%19
14/04/20205.8100.13101.13-0.99%5.73%5.81%-8
19/06/20206.15100.599.880.62%5.92%5.85%7
12/04/20218.25106.25100.255.99%6.10%6.04%6
04/10/20226.199105.75-6.38%6.35%6.27%7
27/01/2023697.7598.63-0.89%6.53%6.44%9
22/04/20246.6599.2597.631.66%6.80%6.56%24
04/11/20246.259799.13-2.15%6.81%6.82%-1
03/12/20247.0010196.634.52%6.81%6.87%-6
26/02/20256.2096.13100.5-4.35%6.89%6.91%-1
12/06/20256.2596.13960.14%6.92%6.92%1
28/11/20266.6097.5961.56%6.98%6.95%3
23/03/20276.8598.3897.131.29%7.09%7.04%5
29/11/20276.7597.3898.5-1.14%7.12%7.07%5
03/11/20286.6596.1397.5-1.41%7.17%7.10%6
26/02/20306.6594.596.25-1.82%7.34%7.15%19
22/04/20317.0096.594.631.98%7.42%7.32%9
23/03/20327.009696.75-0.78%7.46%7.39%7
02/11/20357.0595.7596.25-0.52%7.48%7.43%5
23/03/20377.2595.7595.750.00%7.68%7.48%19

 

 

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