| 19/01/2024 | 12/01/2023 | %Change | YTD | |
| Euro / LP | 16,309.50 | 16,423.50 | -0.69% | -1.68% |
| Euro / Dollar | 1.0873 | 1.0949 | -0.69% | -1.68% |
| NEER Index | 242.57 | 242.13 | 0.18% | 0.71% |
Lebanese Forex Market
The Lebanese Pound (LBP) remained steady within the new official rate of USD/LBP 15,000 by January 19, 2024.
The Lebanese exchange rate has been hovering consistently around 89,700 USD/LBP over the past month. It is important to note that the Lebanese currency has showed stability recently though it is not stable as uncertainty and worries are still looming with no recovery plan has been put on table to solve the ongoing financial crisis in the country.
As for the Euro/LBP currency pair, the Euro depreciated against the dollar-pegged LBP with the currency pair going from last week €/LBP 16,423.50 to €/LBP 16,309.50 by January 19, 2024. The Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) of the Lebanese pound increased by 0.71% standing at 242.57 points on January 19, 2024.
International Forex Market
The USD Index (DXY) increased by 1.01% to stand at 103.434 on January 19, 2024, with the Fed rate cut expectations being pushed back out. Furthermore, weekly US unemployment claims dropped to their lowest since 2022 and US housing activity picked up thanks to less stringent financial conditions and few sellers coming to market.
The Euro depreciated against the dollar by 0.71% over the course of the week and reached EUR/USD 1.0873, partially due to the stronger US Dollar (USD). In the Eurozone area, consumers are concerned about inflation remaining sticky and wage pressures continuing to remain elevated. With the ECB pushing back rate cut expectations, the single currency may well perform better against some of the weaker currencies. However, against the dollar, it will require US data to start turning lower and fast. If that doesn’t happen, then the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD will remain to the downside.
The British Pound depreciated against the Dollar by 0.63% to reach GBP/USD 1.2673 by January 19, 2024, after UK retail sales for December disappointed. Indeed, retail sales declined more than economists saw across almost all categories, but Black Friday sales in November may have stolen seasonal buying ahead of the numbers for the last month of the year. Furthermore, an unexpected rise in year-over-year inflation to 4% in December drove markets to lower expectations that the Bank of England will begin rate cuts in the coming months.
For other currencies in Europe, the USD/CHF edged higher by 1.98% by the end of this week to stand at USD/CHF 0.8692 on Friday January 19, 2024. Elsewhere, the USD/CNY and USD/JPY pair depreciated respectively by 0.38% and 2.38% to stand at USD/CNY 7.1945 and USD/JPY 148.33 on Friday January 19, 2024. Furthermore, the USD/CAD pair depreciated by 0.6% to stand at USD/CAD 1.3491 by Friday January 19, 2024, while the AUD/USD saw an drop by 1.66% to stand at 0.6575 by the end of this week.
Commodities
Gold headed for the biggest weekly loss since early December, reaching 2,026.62 on January 19, 2024. Indeed, recent data show an unexpected drop in jobless claims and better-than-estimated retail sales, which prompted traders to rethink bets about prospects for interest rate cuts. The economic strength comes as the Federal Reserve looks for signs of weakness, as it considers loosening monetary policy. Bullion typically moves in the opposite direction of rates.
Crude oil prices jumped by 2.23% to stand at $74.3/ barrel on Friday January 19, 2024 after the International Energy Agency (IEA) joined producer group OPEC in forecasting strong growth in global oil demand in 2025. Furthermore, the cold winter weather disrupted U.S. crude output while the government reported a big weekly draw in crude inventories. Oil traders also worried about geopolitical risks as Pakistan conducted strikes inside Iran, two days after Iranian strikes hit Pakistani territory.