| 15/09/2023 | 08/09/2023 | %Change | YTD | |
| Euro / LP | 15,982.50 | 16,072.50 | -0.56% | 895.65% |
| Euro / Dollar | 1.0655 | 1.0715 | -0.56% | 0.06% |
| NEER Index | 237.38 | 237.72 | -0.14% | 39.20% |
Lebanese Forex Market
The Lebanese Pound (LBP) remained steady within the new official rate of USD/LBP 15,000 by September 15, 2023.
On the parallel market, the Lebanese national currency remained steady this week with almost same average as previous week of 89,590 LBP/USD. The pair LBP/USD recorded a minimum of 89,500 LBP/USD and a maximum of 89,700 LBP/USD during the course of this week. Although the Lebanese parallel market rate is stable, a major uncertainty remains regarding the Lebanese exchange rate, mostly due to the country’s political situation and the recent announcement of the Central Bank’s plan to replace its exchange rate platform Sayrafa with Bloomberg.
As for the Euro/LBP currency pair, the Euro depreciated against the dollar-pegged LBP with the currency pair going down from last week €/LBP 16,072.501 to €/LBP 15,982.50 by September 15, 2023. The Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) of the Lebanese pound registered a slight decrease during the course of the week to stand at 237.38 points on September 15, 2023.
International Forex Market
This week, the dollar index held steady on Friday September 15, 2023, and remained near six-month peak of 105.237. The U.S currency jumped overnight after retail sales received a boost from higher oil prices despite higher-than-expected inflation at 3.7% yearly. The August CPI indicates that inflation is still a lingering concern, bolstering arguments for a potential additional Fed rate hike.
In turn, the Euro and British pound depreciated respectively against the dollar by 0.50% and 0.49% to stand at EUR/USD 1.0661 and GBP/USD 1.2429 by the week ending September 15, 2023. The euro currency ended the week on a negative ground as attention turned to the ECB dovish rate hike this week that was supported by a solid majority of governing council members while GBP currency dropped after UK GDP figures slipped more than markets expected with the July data decreasing by 0.5%, worse than the 0.2% expected.
For other currencies in Europe, the dollar prolonged its gains versus the Swiss Franc this week, as the greenback showed a six-month high despite higher US inflation figures. The USD/CHF pair registered a 0.44% weekly gain to reach 0.8948 by Friday 15, 2023.
As for the Japanese currency, the USD/JPY pair ended the week on a positive ground extending gains for the second week and stands at USD/ JPY 147.48 with the Yen hanging close to a 10 Month low. In fact, traders have been keeping a cautious watch for the possibility of intervention by Japanese authorities while BoJ stated that an exit from an ultra-easy policy is not considered as long as wage and inflation data do not meet expectations, leaving the Yen vulnerable against other currencies.
Elsewhere, the Australian appreciated by 1.22% from the previous week to stand at 0.6469 AUD/USD. China’s positive economic data is reinforcing the strengthening of the Australian pair with August retail sales registering a YoY 4.6% in August, surpassing expectations of a 3% increase. Meanwhile the Canadian dollar extended its downside around 1.3502, by Friday September 15, 2023, amid a surge in crude oil prices.
Commodities
Gold prices were poised for their second consecutive weekly drop on Friday 15, 2023 reaching $1,918.29/ounce. The downward movement was certainly driven by August U.S. inflation data, which strengthened expectations of additional Federal Reserve interest rate increases following an expected pause next week.
Oil prices are set for their third consecutive weekly gain, jumping 5.01% to $94.37/barrel by Friday September 15, 2023. This uptick is attributed to positive Chinese economic data surpassing expectations and reports indicating record-high oil consumption. These factors are reinforcing the belief that demand from the world’s second-largest consumer of crude oil would continue to rise. In parallel, continuing the existing supply reductions by OPEC+ until the end of the year, along with this favorable demand situation in Asia, might drive oil prices beyond $100/barrel before 2024.