| Cumulative 2020 | Cumulative 2021 | Cumulative 2022 | |
| Imports Billion USD | 11.31 | 13.64 | 19.05 |
| Custom Revenue Trillion LBP | 1.33 | 1.61 | 2.58 |
| December 2020 | December 2021 | December 2022 | |
| Imports Billion USD | 1.23 | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| Custom Revenue Billion LBP | 131.42 | 152.19 | 553.68 |
BDL has published recently the new customs revenue after the customs dollar rate has been adjusted upwards from 1,507 LBP to 15,000 LBP. However, BDL has proclaimed that this new rate has started being applied in the month of December 2022.
The table above shows two interesting things. First, imports in all of 2022 have increased substantially to $19.05 billion, a result that can be attributed to better adjustment of the economy after 3 years of crisis and, more important, to importers stacking up on imports before the application of the new higher dollar rate at end 2022. But, for December 2022, we see that imports have reverted to the levels prevailing in December 2020 and December 2021 at about 1.25 billion (as most of the increase in imports has occurred in the earlier months); and given the higher customs dollar rate at 15,000 LBP, customs revenue increased to 553.68 billion LBP, from an earlier average of about 142 billion LBP, an increase of almost 4 times.
We have shown elsewhere (“An Empirical Note on the Desirability of a Reasonable Customs Dollar Rate”, Blominvest Bank Blog, August 26, 2022) that prior to the crisis in 2019, the average tariff (or custom) rate stood at 2.5%; but since the 2022 Government Budget has increased tariffs on some import substituting goods, the average tariff rate must have increased. We postulate that it has increased to about 3%. And this can be seen from the calculation of the customs revenue in December 2022:
1.25 x 0.03 x 15,000 = 562.5 billion LBP
As the actual customs revenue stood at 553.68 billion LBP, not far off from the calculated one at 562.5 billion LBP, then the average tariff rate must have risen very close to 3%.
Lastly, it is interesting to note that the higher customs dollar rate of 15,000 has proved to be quite fertile. That is why the government has decreed in May 2023 that it will increase the rate to the Sayrafa rate of about 86,000 LBP. That, naturally, should be by far even more fertile, but then again it might be just enough to pay for the 7-fold increase in public salaries that the government has also decreed!