Gold prices increased as investors bet on US interest rates to peak

Lebanese Forex Market

The Lebanese Pound (LBP) remained steady within the new official rate of USD/LBP 15,000 by July 14^th, 2023.

On the parallel market, the Lebanese national currency remained steady this week with an average of 91,429 LBP/USD. The pair LBP/USD recorded a minimum of 91,200 LBP/USD and a maximum of 91,500 LBP/USD during the course of this week. The Lebanese Lira remained steady due to Sayrafa interventions by the Central Bank.

As for the Euro/LBP currency pair, the Euro appreciated against the dollar-pegged LBP with the currency pair going up from last week €/LBP 16,450 to €/LBP 16,813.5 by July 14^th, 2023. The Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) of the Lebanese pound went down by 0.54% weekly to stand at 130.64 points on July 14^th, 2023.

International Forex Market

This week, the US dollar has weakened by 2.3% to stand at 99.917 on July 14^th, 2023. Indeed, US interest rates have neared a peak and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening has begun to take a toll on the world’s largest economy. That will set the stage for the likes of the yen and emerging-market currencies such as the Brazilian real and Colombian peso to strengthen.

The Euro and British pound appreciated respectively against the dollar by 2.22% and 2.07% to stand at EUR/USD 1.1211 and GBP/USD 1.3105 by the week ending July 14, 2023.

This week, the Japanese yen appreciated by 2.7% to stand at USD/ JPY 138.37 by July 14, 2023. Elsewhere, the Australian and Canadian dollar appreciated respectively by 2.65% and 1.16% on a weekly basis to stand at 0.6867 AUD/USD and USD/CAD 1.312 by June 14, 2023.

Commodities

Gold headed for its best week since April as investors reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve is approaching an interest-rate peak, after key US data showed inflation slowing. Bullion is up by 1.65% this week amid a weaker dollar, with some traders warning about the possibilities of disinflation in the wake of cooler than expected US CPI figures on Wednesday. Still, US inflation eased to 3% in June compared to 4% in the previous month, still above the central bank’s 2% target, and swaps traders are almost pricing in further tightening in July when the Fed meets later this month.

This week, crude oil prices rose by 3.87% reaching $76.72 per barrel. In fact, Chinese refineries are looking to the US, Brazil and West Africa to import crude oil due to OPEC+ supply cuts and notably lower exports from Russia in July and August, according to a note from Energy Aspects dated July 13. Moreover, China and India continue to drive the expansion in fuel use.