Gold prices increased by more than 8% since the attack by Hamas on Israel

Lebanese Forex Market

The Lebanese Pound (LBP) remained steady within the new official rate of USD/LBP 15,000 by October 27, 2023.

The war between Hamas and Israel naturally had a significant impact on various currencies, as well as the prices of gold and crude oil. Investors often turned to safe-haven assets like gold, leading to an increase in its value. Simultaneously, the uncertainty in the region affected the exchange rates of several currencies, particularly those tied to the Middle East. However, the Lebanese exchange rate remained remarkably stable during this turbulent period, with 1 USD being equivalent to 89,700 Lebanese Pounds, despite the economic and political challenges facing Lebanon.

As for the Euro/LBP currency pair, the Euro depreciated against the dollar-pegged LBP with the currency pair going up from last week €/LBP 15,889.50 to €/LBP 15,832.5 by October 27, 2023. The Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) of the Lebanese pound slightly increased by 0.14% standing at 239.91 points on October 27, 2023.

International Forex Market

On Friday October 27, 2023, the USD Index (DXY), which monitors the performance of the US dollar against a basket of its primary counterparts, improved by 0.44% to stand at 106.633. Indeed, The US economy grew at the fastest pace in nearly two years last quarter on a burst of consumer spending as the Gross domestic product accelerated to a 4.9% annualized rate, more than double the second-quarter pace.

In turn, the Euro currency depreciated by 0.38% against the US dollar as EUR/USD reached 1.0557 on Friday October 27, 2023. The European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged at 4% for the first time in more than a year. In fact, policymakers aren’t certain that a series of hikes would succeed in subduing inflation, however they believe that holding borrowing costs at that level for long enough will make a remarkable contribution to bringing consumer-price gains back to the 2% target. Additionally, ECB hasn’t shut the door to further hikes, should inflation fail to ease quickly enough.

Regarding the UK, the British pound experienced a 0.35% decline in value compared to the previous week, settling at 1.2123 GBP/USD on October 27, 2023. Evidently, the Pound-Dollar exchange rate remains susceptible to the strength of the US Dollar. Additionally, the Bank of England appears poised to maintain its current interest rates in the upcoming week while emphasizing its commitment to combating the high inflation in Britain, despite growing concerns about a potential recession. The challenge faced by the Bank of England in reducing inflation from 6.7% in September to its 2% target, the highest among major world economies, has been complicated by uncertainty regarding the full impact of the 14 rate hikes.

For other currencies in Europe, the USD/CHF edged higher by 0.67% by the end of this week to stand at USD/CHF 0.8991 despite the growing geopolitical tension in the Middle East, which would usually benefit the safe haven currency especially the Swiss Franc. Additionnally, the Chinese and Japanese currencies depreciated respectively by 0.01% and 0.17% to stead at USD/CNY 7.3175 and USD/JPY 150.16.

Elsewhere, the Australian appreciated by 0.22% from the previous week to stand at 0.6335 AUD/USD on Friday October 27, 2023. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD pair increased by 0.75% to stand at USD/CAD 1.3824, by Friday October 27, 2023.

Commodities

Gold prices are continuously increasing as the conflict in the Middle East continues to offer support for the precious metal. Bullion has risen by 8.45% since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel. Over the course of the week, gold prices increased by 0.24% to stand at $1987.06/ ounce by October 27, 2023. Indeed, the demand for safe-haven assets in constantly increasing as people fear the war could escalate.

Crude oil prices decreased remarkably by 4.77% this week to stand at $84.52/ per barrel by October 27, 2023. indeed, Saudi Arabia has played a significant role in managing oil supply through OPEC+ agreements and voluntary cuts, aiming to reduce market volatility. In more details, global oil reserves, including both commercial and strategic stockpiles, have reached a multiyear low due to production cuts by OPEC+. These reductions have reduced the available cushion of oil reserves just as tensions in the Middle East raise concerns about potential supply disruptions. Worldwide stockpiles have dropped to 3.31 billion barrels this month, the lowest level since tracking began in January 2017. This decrease in oil reserves is influenced by multiple factors, including the impact of Saudi voluntary production cuts, which have tightened the market, and higher interest rates, which make holding oil stocks less attractive. The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict has also added to market uncertainties. The situation remains complex, with various signals affecting oil prices and storage decisions, including backwardation in pricing, which discourages stockpiling, and fluctuations in the prices of different crude oil types.