Tensions in Red Sea Could Push Lebanon’s Inflation Higher in 2024

According to the Central Administration of Statistics (CAS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), representing the evolution of goods and services’ prices consumed by households, revealed that Lebanon’s inflation rate remained sticky at high levels and ending the year at 192.26% by December year 2023. Meanwhile, escalating political tensions in the Red Sea pose a significant threat to the potential closure of the Bab el Mandeb Strait, a vital global maritime passageway. Such an occurrence could precipitate supply chain disruptions, an upturn in shipping costs, and consequently, elevated consumer prices. The implications of these developments may result a broader surge in inflation. As for Lebanon, already grappling with the challenges of sustained inflation since late 2019, would encounter heightened difficulties in preserving price stability amid prolonged economic uncertainty.

In details, the cost of “Housing and utilities”, inclusive of water, electricity, gas and other fuels (grasping 28.4% of the CPI) added a yearly 206.71% by December 2023. Also, “Owner-occupied” rental costs increased by 327.93% year-on-year (YOY) and the prices of “water, electricity, gas, and other fuels” followed a significant increase by 106.05% YOY.

Looking at the prices of “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” (20% of CPI), it surged by 207.60% yearly. In turn, the average prices of “Transportation” (13.1% of the CPI) and “Health” (7.7% of the CPI) recorded hikes of an annual 123.88% and 173.59% respectively by December 2023. Also, “Restaurant and Hotels” (2.8% of CPI) increased yearly by 197.62% by end of year 2023.

In the same token, costs of “Clothing and Footwear” (5.2% of CPI) surged by 160.79% by December 2023, and the prices of “Communication” (4.5% of the CPI) increased by 128.83%. Prices of “Furnishings and household equipment” (3.8% of CPI), “Alcoholic beverages and tobacco” (1.4% of CPI), and “Recreation, amusement, and culture” (2.4% of the CPI) increased by 143.14%, 203.49%, and 133.85%, respectively, by December 2023.

Inflation rate by December 2023

Tensions in Red Sea Could Push Lebanon’s Inflation Higher in 2024

Source: CAS, BLOMINVEST

 

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